Northern Ireland’s security situation is complicated – so much so that visitors might be scared away despite only a minimal risk. A risk much lower than the risk of being a traffic victim. Let me try to make the facts clear ...
Northern Ireland 2009 – An Elevated Risk Assessment
With several attempted assassinations of police personnel in 2008 and the discovery of a 250 pound bomb ready for use, British intelligence and security services elevated the risk assessment for Northern Ireland in recent weeks. Hugh Orde, chief of the Police Service for Northern Ireland (PSNI), even went so far as to request military assistance in the form of the SRR (special forces operating undercover, closely related to the SAS). The last action, especially as it was done in an underhand way, fuelled debate to no ends, with security sources insisting that it was necessary to prevent terrorist activities.
On March 7th the worst fears of many people became reality – twelve years after the last British soldier was killed in Northern Ireland, two soldiers died in an attack on Massereene Barracks in County Antrim. Four more persons, two of them civilian, were severely wounded in the same attack, when at least two gunmen drew up in a car, firing automatic weapons.
This was followed by a gun attack on a PSNI patrol in Craigavnon (County Armagh) on March 9th - leaving one officer dead.
Who was Behind the March Attacks?
We cannot say for sure, but all evidence points towards dissident Republicans. The “Real IRA” has claimed responsibility for the Antrim murders in a telephone call.
What are “Dissident Republicans”?
For the last ninety years the paramilitary forces on both sides of the divide have split into numerous fractions, often using grandiose names.
The “Republican Movement”, though often portrayed as a towering monolith, is far from unified. Sinn Fein is connected to only part of the paramilitaries, the “Provisional IRA” (PIRA, Provos), which has disarmed. Republicans dissatisfied with Sinn Fein’s strategy in seeking a political accord have formed very vocal political groups with their own connections to paramilitary units, the high-profile ones being the “Continuity IRA” (CIRA) and the “Real IRA” (RIRA).
These groups have split off from the PIRA and taken their weapons with them – and are still trying to source new weapons and explosives. Recently a (rather inept) gun-runner-to-be was arrested in Eastern Europe.
What is the Reasoning Behind Recent Attacks?
In a telephone call to a journalist, a male claimed responsibility for the attack on Massereene Barracks in the name of the “Real IRA”. According to “Sunday Tribune” journalist Suzanne Breen, “he made, and the Real IRA made, no apology for targeting British soldiers while they remained what he called occupying the north of Ireland.”
As to the shooting of two pizza delivery men in the same incident, one of them Polish, the unknown caller stated that these were “collaborating with British rule”. Using this reasoning (for want of a better word), anybody not actively resisting “British rule” can become a “legitimate target”.
Ultimately the aim of the perpetrators is to sow unrest in Northern Ireland, to further their concept of a united Ireland "by any means necessary". It has to be clearly stated that only a minute and dwindling proportion of the population is ready to identify with the methods taken.
What Does This Mean for Northern Ireland?
The threat of dissident paramilitary fractions committing acts of violence has always been an undercurrent even after the Good Friday Agreement – both Republican and Loyalist splinter groups have carried on “fighting for the cause”. This was, however, more often in-fighting and/or related to finances ... all active groups seem to rely on financial tactics that are a carbon copy of organised crime.
The deadly attacks of March 7th and March 9th (and the unsuccessful or foiled attacks before) have only highlighted the ongoing threat and the will and ability of paramilitary groups to mount operations. Whether this is an ongoing threat remains to be seen.
What Does This Mean for the Visitor to Northern Ireland?
As strange as it may sound ... little.
The general security situation in Northern Ireland has not changed massively over the last few months, it is still safe to travel there. Visitors will have to exercise common sense, though – if it looks like trouble is brewing, calmly walk away before the pot boils over. And if you are asked by security personnel to leave an area, do the sensible thing and follow their directions. You do not want to have any first-hand experience of “collateral damage” or (depending where your sympathies lie) “friendly fire”.
But it has to be said again and again: The threat of violence in Northern Ireland is generally no greater than anywhere else in the world these days. Statistically speaking more people die in road traffic accidents than in politically-motivated violence.
